Bad news in disguise?

The announcement of 24,000 new jobs in the last quarter seems to be welcome news on the face of it. Such claims though, can only be assessed when we look a little deeper beneath the headline figures.

For one thing, Alex Salmond will be rubbing his hands together in glee as Scotland came off worse. While the rest of the UK shared in the net jobs gain, the Scots lost a net 10,000 jobs in the same period. For a country seeking to go its own way away from the Union, such figures are political dynamite. Another set like these will put the SNP in a very strong position come the Independence vote twelve months hence.

Another worrying aspect of these employment figures is confirmation of the growing dicide between the North and the South. Notably, the North West of England came off very badly. Here, the number of people unemployed grew by 13,000. While this may add fuel to the argument for HS2, a faster train service between Manchester and the capital isn't going to have any effect on this figure.

Unsurprisingly, it was the South East which saw the greatest benefit with 29,000 fewer people unemployed. So why this apparent divide? For one thing, the new scheme to encourage people on to the housing ladder is an accident waiting to happen. Estate agents in growth areas like the South East are recruiting new staff as never before as the latest housing bubble emerges. This is a huge worry. This has the potential to put us even further back than we were in 2008 after the last big crash. This policy was always ill conceived and the fruits are now being seen.

The other aspect of these figures is that most of the new jobs are part time. This is not going to address the real problem. This is like a bucket riddled with holes. Fixing them one at a time isn't going to make any difference. Replacing the bottom of the bucket might but only full time jobs will achieve this.

Last but not least are the twin problems of youth unemployment and long term unemployment. Both figures remain unchanged. In other words, the government hasn't yet hit the jackpot. It is these two sectors which will be the key markers of progress. If youth unemployment carries on for much longer, we will all be working until we're 80. If the numbers of long term unemployed remain the same, we might find ourselves working until we're 85 in order to finance them.

The number of empty high street shops remains fixed at 1 in 7. When this is addressed, inroads in to youth unemployment and long term unemployment can be made.

The new rate of 7.7% brings us a step closer to the rate of 7% below which the new head of the Bank of England will start to raise interest rates. Watch this space because the Tories have to prevent this from happening before polling in 2015. Given the recent explosion in the housing market, it seems as though the banks haven't wasted any time in getting their noses back in the trough. Given their collective standing in 2008, this illustrates the power they continue to exert over all of us. Now that really is bad news because we all know where their greed got us last time...

Taxi!!

Denbighshire County Council has today announced another little gem. On the same day that they seek approval for a compulsory purchase order for the old North Wales Hospital, they today announce the end of bus services to the rural communities of Prion, Saron and Nantglyn.

In a story which you couldn't make up, they have replaced the old bus service with a local taxi service. They have been working hard on this one though. They have subsidised the service for those who intend using it - as long as they give the taxi company 24 hours notice of when they will need it! Is 24 hours enough? How about a week's notice? After all, they are just yokels who live there anyway aren't they? Unbelievable.

Clearly the service wasn't cost effective as it was but I'm sure even Denbighshire could have come up with soemthing more imaginative than this. I know its radical, but how about a small minibus instead - it might even be more cost effective than a car. Heaven help us, a minibus might even allow up to a dozen passengers. Its even possible that because they come from the same neck of the woods, they might even know each other - they could even converse with each other! No, the council is right. Better to have a taxi come all the way out from Denbigh to take a person to town and them take them back again. This is just the sort of short sighted thinking which seems to define local councils. I'm firmly of the view that they don't actually like the idea of promoting community because every decision they take seems designed to further fragment the already brittle communities we have.

To avoid too much embarrassment (although this doesn't seem to have stopped them in the past), they have also announced that they are paying for even bigger advertising hoardings in case anybody notices the appalling state of the front in Rhyl where the funfair used to be. No offence, but evryone knows what a disgrace it is. You can build hoardings to the moon but everyone will still know. As an alternative suggestion, why not do something about the mess? Oh well, just another day in local government..

How to spend it?

There aren't many easy options for this or any British government to source renewable energy which can make a real impact for national demand. It is therefore very sad to see that plans for a Severn barrage have once more been rejected. Such a project would provide 5% of the UK electricity demand. If a similar project were to be rolled out on the Menai Straits off Anglesey, this figure could easily be doubled. While the environmental concerns have been well documented, they are surely outweighed by our need to start producing our own energy as the cost of our domestic bills continues its relentless progress through the ceiling.

Instead, the government is trying everything to convince the many doubters of the the need for HS2. The Severn Barrage would cost £25 billion. The HS2 project would cost at least £40 billion. Even setting aside the obvious disparity in cost between these two major projects, the payback of the barrage is far more compelling than that for HS2. The payback of the latter is based on more assumptions than I've had hot dinners whereas the last time I looked, the waves were still coming in and going out again in their familiar tidal pattern. Perhaps the government would see the sense of the barrage if there was a financial reason for them to do so. I can't think of any sensible reason preventing them from grasping the nettle and making it happen.

That is a problem within British culture. While the French were putting in their infrastructure of nuclear power and the Japanese were putting in their bullet train, we were closing the coal mines and closing the branch lines. Just for once, it would be nice to think a British government could do the right thing and plan for the future. Just for once, wouldn't it be nice if we had something to show for our money?

For the Love of Change

Having digested the choice to award the 2020 Olympic Games to Japan, I was struck with mirth at the revelation that wrestling is to assume Olympic status. Quite where the limits to such absurdity end are not clear. Seemingly, devotees of squash are inconsolable that their sport has once more been overlooked. I can only imagine the sheer devastation within the darts world this morning as trainer wearing darts players face life without a shot at Olympic Gold. For me, this decision has propelled the Olympics in to a Pythonesque farce where eligible sports are decided upon with a rationale which leaves me standing. The next thing you know, they'll be replicating the London Eye in Tokyo - for the sake of all those with a sense of humour like mine, I can but hope.

Of course, it isn't only the Olympics which seem intent on making the rules up in such an odd way. I was in a prominent department store at the weekend and was highly amused to see a fantastic example of marketing on the inside of men's trousers. Their latest ploy is to promote "an active waist band" on selected trousers. This can surely only be interpreted in one way. The less active you become, the less forgiving the waist band will become. The wording of course implies that they promote activity when nothing could be further from the truth. We have not become a nation of jogging bottoms for nothing because, like the darts players with their trainers, athletes we are not. That said, I can only marvel at the invention of the marketing men.

On the subject of marketing, the HS2 rail network has been marketed to within an inch of its life by the current government. I fear they are caught in a trap. Every government likes to undertake one huge project by which they will hopefully be remembered and I'm sure this one is no different. The idea is fraught with problems though. The ascent of London as the epicentre of commerce in this country is not a new development. It has been going on for years and it is frankly absurd to try and redress this balance by spending such a colossal sum of money on a project which, when finished, will be too costly for most commuters to use anyway. They would be better remembered as the government who addressed the rest of the railway network. Seats on trains would be a good start as would a financial incentive for people to use them. Most people I know look upon a train journey as a luxury due to the prohibitive cost. Too many people I know have no access to a railway system within 20 miles of their home - this has only served to isolate them and further exarcerbate class division.  Until this is addressed, our road clogging will continue unabated.

In spite of just about everyone else in the world being against military intervention in Syria, Obama seems to be caught in a trap. When he proclaimed that he would never stand by in the event of chemical weapons being used anywhere in the world, he rather laid himself bare to criticism. He'll be damned if he does intervene and he'll be damned if he doesn't - might have been better to keep quiet on the matter and keep his cards close to his chest.

Ed Milliband finds himself in a similar position with regard to the unions. If he goes ahead with his reforms he will seriously alienate his paymasters and all but rule himself out of election victory in 2015. Change is great provided it fits in with the people who call the shots. Now as always, the unions play the tune to which the Labour Party dances. If he proceeds, it will make UKIP's incursions into Tory strongholds seem trivial. Yes, its been a great week for the Tories. Sometimes in politics, you get weeks where you don't have to do or say anything much because the opposition is doing all your hard work for you. This is a week in point.

East, West or Middle?

The undisputed kings of brown envelope culture meet today to decide the destination of the 2020 Olympics. The IOC have been heavily associated with corruption over many years now so today's vote is no less likely to throw up a surprise than recent years. Remember the shock when Paris was usurped at the last minute by London? We were told that no less a celebrity than David Beckham had swung the vote in our favour. Absolute rubbish. The truth behind that decision we will perhaps never know but at least we did get to enjoy a memorable summer whereby we were able to watch the Olympics taking place a little closer to our TV sets than usual.

The candidates for today's vote make for interesting reading. Japan has held the event before in 1964 and, by all accounts, has a good infrastructure in place. I would expect no less from the ancestral home of organisation where even the trains run to the millisecond. I can't help but wonder though just how much radioactivity is still knocking about in the aftermath of the unfortunate events at Fukushima recently. Tokyo would be a popular choice for all that and I wouldn't be surprised to see them push hard. The games have though recently been to that part of the world in Beijing so perhaps they may have to wait their turn.

What about Madrid? The centre of European poverty, Spain is on its knees financially as it still struggles to come to terms with the property crash which continues to blight its progress. Europeans have a soft spot for Madrid and this would be the safe option. The IOC seldom plays safe though. Madrid is situated in the middle of the desert so would actually represent a surprise choice if selected - very cold in the morning and late evening but extremely hot during the day.

Which leaves Istanbul. There are more problems than answers here but it remains the best option for me. If the Olympics is to try and regain some credibility, Istanbul would be a step in the right direction. As a key link between the East and West, this would make sense politically, culturally and economically. Although Turkey has had its problems in recent weeks, the coming of the Olympics could be just the tonic to bring opposing factions together. Brave would be the man to predict this vote but I hope Istanbul gets the nod for the sake of everybody.

Pilleth: The hidden gem of Wales

This week, I visited the tiny church of St. Mary's at Pilleth. It is about five miles south of Knighton in Radnorshire. If it weren't for the signs and public information, you would drive through it every time and remain blissfully unaware of its role in Welsh history.

To go to the little church is to escape modern life and look upon the quiet valley below. This was the site of one of the most important victories of the Welsh Prince Owain Glyndwr against the English. Sir Edmund Mortimor was defeated by Glyndwr's men here in 1402 and estimates of the number of fatalities vary between five and eight hundred. Mortimor was captured and switched his allegiance to Glyndwr. He subsequently married his daughter Catrin and remained opposed to the monarchy of Henry IV.

It is a magic spot and well worth a visit if ever you happen to be in that part of the world. On the evening I visited, the late summer sun bathed the valley below and the church assumed an other-worldly presence. Utterly unspoilt, this is truly a hidden gem. Perched on a large hillside, its place in the history of the Principality is undeniable and like most other places of such historical significance, it is well hidden from mass tourism. So, if you're ever down there and want to take a bit of time out to reflect on your life and the lives of those before you, I can think of few places more rewarding places to do so.

I have since returned twice - such is the magic and allure of this wonderful spot.

The legacy of the Schleswig-Holstein question...

In his 1864 novella Notes from Underground, Dostoyevsky referred to the "farce in Schleswig-Holstein". The Schleswig-Holstein question concerned the relationships of the Duchies of Schleswig and Holstein with the Danish crown and the German confederation. It was not an easy concept to try and understand and few people did. Famously, the British Statesman Lord Palmerston admitted that "only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business - the Prince Consort who is dead - a German Professor who has gone mad - and I who have forgotten all about it".

In Notes from Underground, Dostoyevsky rejects the concept of Utopian Socialism which would ironically come to dominate Russian life throughout much of the twentieth century. The novella portrays humans as they are which caused great upset among his contemporaries. He portrays humans as irrational, uncooperative and uncontrollable. It is perhaps easy to see why such assertions would cause discomfort. He also claims that human needs can never be satisfied. Many critics consider this novella to be the first example of existentialism in literature and no less a judge than Nietzsche called Dostoyevsky "the only philosopher from whom I had anything to learn".

But just how accurate were the assertions of Dostoyevsky? Are we irrational? Are we uncooperative? Are we uncontrollable? I've not yet met anyone who doesn't tick all three boxes. So why did he cause so much upset? Is it because we would rather not face the realities of our shortcomings or do we genuinely believe these claims don't apply to us?

Lord Browne resigned as Chief Executive of BP in 2007. Since his peerage, he has become active in Government and today highlights a culture which exemplifies the observations made in Notes from Underground. Referring to the civil servants in Whitehall, he expresses his exasperation at their culture. His background in the Private Sector meant that any mistake made was identified and dealt with such that chances of its repetition were negligible. I have worked in such a culture and can concur with him. Things get done. This is the culture of progress. Lord Browne highlights a culture in which mistakes are never admitted and where accountability is non-existent. It must be intensely frustrating for him to be faced with such a culture when he has spent his whole life in a proactive environment. He points to a prevailing culture of blame and denial which renders progress nigh on impossible. Several cases have emerged whereby ministers have recently found themselves having to micro manage a project for fear it won't get done if left to the Civil Servants. If this is true, it begs the worth of bureaucracy. This surely confirms what many have suspected for a long time. Bureaucracy stifles people and stifles progress. While it is intended to promote the most efficient way of completing a task, it all too often acts as a barrier. In short, they are complex, inefficient and inflexible - all the things against which Dostoyevsky warned. Trying to find out who is responsible is like trying to understand  the Schleswig-Holstein question. Even Lord Palmerston struggled with that one!