The current odds of a Conservative majority at the next General Election in 2015 are perhaps surprisingly set at about 13/8. Barring natural disasters and unforeseen events, I would say this looks excellent value and urge you to put a few quid in that direction - if you are one of the lucky ones who has a few quid to spare. Future events will decide the wisdom of my words but I think David Cameron has pulled off a real coup today. Promising a straightforward in or out vote on our membership of the European Union is bold, astute and very well timed.
The economy in the UK is embarking on its slow journey out of the doldrums. It was today announced that the jobless number had again fallen and only on Monday, a major player in the housing industry predicted house prices to return to their pre-crash levels eighteen months hence. A long series of decisions by the law makers in Brussels and Strasbourg have contributed to a rising tide of ill feeling towards the benefits of our continuing membership. It is only one example in an all too familiar pattern but Abu Qatada has shown what membership of the European Union is worth to us. On November 12 last year, he again escaped deportation once more courtesy of our overlords in the European Court of Human Rights. His actions speak for themselves but the cost to all of us of housing him is utterly inexcusable. We are prevented from sending him to face justice in his adopted country by the European Court. The European Working Time Directive now prevents honest hard working people from putting in more than 48 hours per week. The money which we pay to the European Union and the way in which it has been squandered is a national disgrace. The litany of waste and failure goes on and on.
I was just three years old when the British People were last granted a say on their destiny. This announcement has been long overdue. Thatcher, Major, Blair and the bigoted prudent Brown all dodged the issue with varying degrees of incompetence. David Cameron can't lose. If he successfully re-negotiates our membership of Europe, the yes vote will win and he will have used very clever leverage to secure the best deal for Britain. If the other members refuse to accede to his demands, a very passionate no vote will win the day thus strengthening his mandate. Most importantly, he has put distance between himself and all the other parties. The next General Election will thus become a very straightforward choice. Do you want to have a say or do you want to be denied by yet another Prime Minister who promises the world and delivers Milton Keynes? Ed Milliband reacted predictably today in the Commons. His sole strategy thus far as Labour leader has been to deride the decisions of his opposite number. Fair enough but he has been very thin on coming up with his own solutions to the problems we all face. Problems to which he contributed in no small part as economic adviser to Gordon Brown. Nick Clegg knows his best chance of power is within coalition so he can be discounted straight away. UKIP and Nigel Farrage are now as good as a spent force with any remaining arguments based on semantic quibbles. Cameron has stolen a march on Labour by declaring his intention. He has chosen to do so at a time when we are becoming stronger financially. He now has twenty-eight months to prepare for the election with everyone knowing exactly where they stand.
It was interesting to hear the carping from Alex Salmond today. He has to be a Europhile because in the unlikely event of the Scots voting for independence he knows he will need Europe a lot more than they need him. The irony is that it is predicted that the no vote will gain strength the further north you go. Why would you vote to stay in Europe when you've never had it so bad? Likewise the Welsh will err on the side of a yes vote for similar reasons. That said, if the Scots should vote for independence, I bet Mr. Salmond won't afford them the right of a referendum...
Meanwhile, a great many pundits and commentators seem to have forgotten today just how big a mess our European cousins are in financially. A no vote will have little impact on the strength of London as the major financial centre. They have to carry Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland et al for many years to come. The existing union is far too reliant on the success of Germany. It is an unsustainable relationship and brave would be the man who bets against the return of the Deutschmark in due course.
Needless to say, Labour will now spend the next two years asserting that Cameron has played his hand for no reason. Well, this will make a change from their spend, spend, spend answer to the biggest financial deficit in our history. Cameron has made a decision and a bold one at that. He can't have been more clear and Labour will need to produce a very large white rabbit out of the hat to trump him. You can only go on holding your cards close to your chest for so long but in the end you have to play them. Over to you Mr. Milliband. I'll not hold my breath! 13/8 return suddenly seems very attractive...
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