Heads or tails?

The first ball of this summer's Ashes will be bowled later this morning in Nottingham. Temperatures are expected to reach 22 degrees today and a dizzy 26 tomorrow. Headlines this morning question whether this is the worst Australian squad in history. The hyperbole has begun. It was ever thus!

Before people start cracking open the champagne and engaging in a national display of back slapping, I would refer them to Ashes series of the past. In the winter of 1958, the strongest England squad ever seen left these shores as the overwhelming favourites to retain the Ashes they had won in 1956. If you read the England squad list for that tour, it is like a who's who of English cricket - Peter May, Colin Cowdrey, Ted Dexter, Tom Graveney, Raman Subba Row, Trevor Bailey, Godfrey Evans, Brian Statham, Fred Trueman, Frank Tyson, Peter Loader, Jim Laker and Tony Lock. Not a bad bunch to take to Australia! Having won the three previous Ashes series, it seemed that these players just needed to turn up and the urn would once more be theirs. Not so. Australia won the series 4-0 having been astutely captained by Richie Benaud. The inevitable inquisition in the aftermath of this drubbing saw the English pointing to questionable umpiring and the questionable bowling actions of Meckif, Slater, Burke and Rorke. For all their complaints, the record books will always indicate that the Australians won 4-0.

In 1989, Alan Border captained a group of players many of whom were quite unfamiliar to the English public at large. By the end of the summer, everyone knew who they were and so began a period of Australian dominance which would last until 2005. Between them, Terry Alderman and Geoff Lawson helped themselves to a staggering 70 wickets during the six tests. By contrast, England's foremost wicket takers Neil Foster and Angus Fraser could only muster 21. Although Mark Taylor made a mountain of runs (839) and the young Steve Waugh a creditable 506, the message was as clear then as it is now. Bowlers win matches and catches win matches.

One thing is certain - it will be a belter of a wicket with plenty of runs for those that can bat. It will undoubtedly be a very good toss to win and a very unfortunate one to lose. The winner of the toss can't do anything except bat and seek to do so until well into Friday. England have taken the bold and, in my view, unnecessary move of dropping the sturdy Compton and promoted Root to open. Root has opened many times for Yorkshire and is clearly a player who has a great future at this level. That said, he has no experience of opening for England and has now been thrown in at the deep end to begin his tenure on the opening day of the Ashes. No pressure then. My worry is Pieterson. Since his Ashes debut in 2005, he has scored just three centuries against Australia. Two of them were scored at Adelaide with one in a winning cause and one in a losing cause. His 158 at Edgbaston in 2005 remains his only home century in the Ashes. Given his reputation, this is hardly a stellar record. Everyone is aware of his potential but I feel he too often flatters to deceive. Add to this the fact that he has not long since returned from injury with limited time spent in the middle and his presence looks more of a burden than a reassurance. To cap it all, the first test is at Trent Bridge where he is not exactly loved by the home crowd after the manner in which he chose to leave (for more money). Bell has never convinced me of his ability to cope under pressure and I will be happy if he proves me wrong. I have no concerns about Cook and Trott but strongly question the decision to promote the blossoming Root up the order too soon. His presence would be worth far more in the middle order. Assuming Prior maintains his usual batting we will at least have some support at seven. The bowling looks fairly solid although I always like to pose the what if? What if Anderson and Trott were both injured within the first couple of tests? Unlikely granted but not if you ask Glenn McGrath! Your team is only as strong as what you have in reserve and that concerns me. Graeme Swann is a key player not just because he starts the series on his home ground but because he is arguably the most effective spin bowler in world cricket today and will be confronted by a galaxy of left handers in the Australian top order. He has though just returned from a significant injury and should he have to withdraw, I am not inspired by our other spin options.

The biggest strength the Australians possess is that just like in 1989 and 1958, they have several players who are largely unknown. They will all know the strengths and weaknesses of the English players because most of them have been around for so long. I was surprised to read that players like Ian Botham have been predicting 5-0 Ashes victories back to back this year. Of all people, he should realise the folly of such predictions. Is this the worst Australian team to contest the Ashes. If it is, we will know come September but there is an awful lot of cricket to be played between now and then and I would refrain from writing them off just yet. Nobody had heard of a bowler called Bob Massie in 1972. He had been rejected by Northamtonshire after making a few appearances for their third team. In his first Ashes test at Lords he took 8 English wickets in each innings to prove that every man has his day. Who would bet against another Massie stepping up to the mark this summer?