Trust the polls?

Comparing the 2015 general election to 1997 is frankly absurd. In 1997, there was no other option because after 18 years of Conservative government, the public needed fresh ideas. The media had blown up the concept of sleeze in a successful bid to topple the Tories. Since then of course, we have seen that sleeze is a feature of all political parties.

Major's victory in 1992 was thinner than a rizla paper and he spent the next five years achieving very little in the way of constructive legislation. He did sort out thew economy though. It was his administration which built the foundation upon which growth was achieved under Blair and Brown. That they spent it in so profligate a manner is another debate.

It's clear that many Liberal voters have defected to Labour just as many Tory voters have defected to UKIP. Come judgement day though, these waverers will be faced with the age old conundrum. Vote for the party which best represents my political principles or vote for the next best thing which at least has a chance of outright power. Going for the latter could return us to the days of majority government. Going for the former will make coalitions the political norm.

People will therefore evaluate the performance of this coalition and compare it to the it's Labour predecessor. On that basis, I can see more UKIP waverers returning to the Tory ranks and more Labour voters returning to their Liberal roots. The 1992 prediction is therefore the more realistic of the two. Such an outcome though will give us a government with one hand tied behind it's back and I would sooner see a eurosceptic coalition instead.

This coalition has been more of a disaster for Clegg than Cameron but that is usually the price to pay for being the junior partner. The age group who will punish Clegg the most is the students for whom he broke his promise on tuition fees. Historically though, this is the age group least likely to even enter the ballot box - never mind vote. For that reason, I don't think Clegg will come off as badly as people seem to think.

Miliband has several handicaps to overcome before he can start writing acceptance speeches. Thus far his proposals have been knee jerk to situations arising such as the recent floods and the energy bills. What he desperately needs is a radical idea of his own making which will make people sit up and think. He has yet to do this and need to soon if he is to realise his dream. In addition, he also has a shadow chancellor in whom the public harbours a lingering distrust. He needs to ditch Balls for Darling at the first opportunity or risk losing his chance of power. Balls is a toxic brand for Labour and Miliband's advisors must be screaming words to that effect.

Also, should the Scots go their own way, the Labour share of the vote will be badly hurt. Miliband has been very naive in sharing a platform with Cameron and Clegg to rule out the pound for an independent Scotland. Granted, the Tories are the toxic brand in Scotland but the Tories stand to lose the least should the Scots vote Yes. As 2015 draws nearer, a slim Tory majority is looking far more likely than a repeat of 1997. For one thing, Miliband hasn't a fraction of Blair's charisma and few politicians in history have had less charisma than John Major. Added to all of this is the undeniable fact that the economy is prospering under the vice like grip of this coalition. Timing is all in politics and it seems as though Miliband is fighting a losing battle.