The first year of marriage

Today marks the first anniversary of the ConLib coalition. The Conservatives entered the marriage with 307 seats against the 57 of their Liberal bedfellows. Of course every marriage needs compromise from both sides and politics is no different. However, to coin Orwell in Animal Farm,"All animals are equal except some are more equal than others". With 307 seats versus 57 seats the inequality speaks for itself. One year later, we have just had the referendum on the alternative voting system, the local elections and the elections for the national assemblies of Wales and Scotland. If the latter are a judgment on both sides in this coalition, the conclusions for each are in stark contrast. The Conservatives, surprisingly for a majority governing party, have been given a universal seal of approval. That they have failed so miserably in Scotland is entirely in line with expectations as the memory of Mrs. Thatcher is alive and well in the hearts and minds of the Scots. By contrast, the Liberals have been not so much chastised as assaulted! Their small gain in Wales was more a reflection of the nuances of Welsh politics. Elsewhere the message to them has been emphatic. To enter into a coalition espousing the best interests of the country is admirable but to then subsequently break most of your manifesto promises along the way is quite another. Even politicians need an element of credibility and I fear that the Liberals lost theirs twelve months ago. To agree to forfeit the lion's share of your election manifesto in exchange for a vote on something which wasn't even your preferred electoral system is at best weak and at worst stupid. In a way, they had to enter the coalition since this represented their only viable chance of being in government. A minority led Conservative government would simply have gone back to the country in the Autumn and acquired the majority which they needed. Hence, it always appeared that it was heads (the conservatives win) or tails (the conservatives win). Clegg ought to have stuck to his principles and put his money where his mouth is and demanded no less than a vote on proportional representation. He may not have won this vote but it would have had two key advantages. Firstly, PR was what his party has been campaigning for since before I was in short trousers and secondly, PR can be explained with ease to anyone - unlike the alternative voting system! I consider myself to be reasonably well informed but I'm buggered if anyone over the past month ever coherently explained how the alternative voting system actually works. That he chose to pursue a referendum on a system to which he did not subscribe and which he patently didn't understand is difficult to understand.

He speaks now of flexing his party's muscles more in government but doesn't seem to see that his strength is now akin to that of Daniel after his haircut. He is now between the devil and the deep blue sea. Flex his muscles and make himself look even more stupid (scarcely believable) or adopt a more subservient and acquiescent style with the latter removing what little credibility he may have left. To leave the coalition would be suicidal because, ironically, he would now be even weaker outside of it. Thus, I fully expect the coalition to see out its five years in government with the Conservatives being returned as the majority government in its wake.

Twelve months hence, we shall all doubtless be considering the first year of marriage of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge. I trust they both know what they seek out of their coalition and hope they have the strength to stick to their respective guns. Mr Clegg has sought popularity and the limelight and both have now betrayed him. The Duke and Duchess would be well advised to avoid both.