Surge In New Voter Registrations

It is interesting today to note the apparent flurry of last minute activity principally in the sub25 age group to vote.

Historically, it has always been the domain of the young to effect change and so it is again. While I am not a fan of live television debates, I welcome them if they have effected this late surge. Ultimately, any elected government is only a reflection of those parts of the electorate who have voted. Given that the influx of registrations is most notably that of younger, often first time voters, we may rest assured on one outcome. It will not be good news for Labour. As to which of the other two main parties they will plump for, that is less straightforward.

An eighteen year old voting for the first time will only really have known this Labour government so should not need to much persuasion to cast their vote elsewhere. So what are the fundamental differences between the Conservatives and the Liberals? The former wish to involve the people more and the latter less. The Conservatives will also wield the axe on public services almost immediately whereas the Liberals are in the wait and see corner. The Liberals are pro Euro and the Conservatives anti Euro. The Conservatives wish to scrap the proposed NI increase whereas the Liberals want to introduce a minimum tax band of £10000. If only from a purely monetary perspective in terms of what is left in their pocket, it will be the latter which will woo the younger voter. The minimum tax band will have more appeal than a measly 1% difference in NI. The young are also far more likely to embrace the lure of the Euro zone being generally less traditional in their view.

I would therefore predict that for every 100 new votes garnered as a result of this last minute activity, 15 will go to Labour, 35 to the Conservatives and 50 to the Liberals. So it looks as though the Liberal band wagon is gathering momentum. The next debate covers the thorny issue of immigration where the difference between the parties is stark. So how important is immigration to us all? Well, by Friday morning, the picture will be a lot more clear. I suspect that in the main people are becoming rather cheesed off with it what with 2.5 million now frequenting the dole queue. Consequently, I expect the opinion polls by the week-end to look something like this: Conservative 35-39, Liberal 29-33 and Labour 22-26 - remember that many thousands of our number are returning home from their "holidays" having been delayed by the volcano. But they will not vent their anger against the volcano. It will be the blame magnet Mr. Brown who will be punished. Incidentally, should such figures in the opinion polls result and remain constant by the time of Election day, the Conservatives will command a slender working majority and do well to keep the Liberals close to coin the advice of Marlon Brando's character in The Godfather.