Bad news in disguise?

The announcement of 24,000 new jobs in the last quarter seems to be welcome news on the face of it. Such claims though, can only be assessed when we look a little deeper beneath the headline figures.

For one thing, Alex Salmond will be rubbing his hands together in glee as Scotland came off worse. While the rest of the UK shared in the net jobs gain, the Scots lost a net 10,000 jobs in the same period. For a country seeking to go its own way away from the Union, such figures are political dynamite. Another set like these will put the SNP in a very strong position come the Independence vote twelve months hence.

Another worrying aspect of these employment figures is confirmation of the growing dicide between the North and the South. Notably, the North West of England came off very badly. Here, the number of people unemployed grew by 13,000. While this may add fuel to the argument for HS2, a faster train service between Manchester and the capital isn't going to have any effect on this figure.

Unsurprisingly, it was the South East which saw the greatest benefit with 29,000 fewer people unemployed. So why this apparent divide? For one thing, the new scheme to encourage people on to the housing ladder is an accident waiting to happen. Estate agents in growth areas like the South East are recruiting new staff as never before as the latest housing bubble emerges. This is a huge worry. This has the potential to put us even further back than we were in 2008 after the last big crash. This policy was always ill conceived and the fruits are now being seen.

The other aspect of these figures is that most of the new jobs are part time. This is not going to address the real problem. This is like a bucket riddled with holes. Fixing them one at a time isn't going to make any difference. Replacing the bottom of the bucket might but only full time jobs will achieve this.

Last but not least are the twin problems of youth unemployment and long term unemployment. Both figures remain unchanged. In other words, the government hasn't yet hit the jackpot. It is these two sectors which will be the key markers of progress. If youth unemployment carries on for much longer, we will all be working until we're 80. If the numbers of long term unemployed remain the same, we might find ourselves working until we're 85 in order to finance them.

The number of empty high street shops remains fixed at 1 in 7. When this is addressed, inroads in to youth unemployment and long term unemployment can be made.

The new rate of 7.7% brings us a step closer to the rate of 7% below which the new head of the Bank of England will start to raise interest rates. Watch this space because the Tories have to prevent this from happening before polling in 2015. Given the recent explosion in the housing market, it seems as though the banks haven't wasted any time in getting their noses back in the trough. Given their collective standing in 2008, this illustrates the power they continue to exert over all of us. Now that really is bad news because we all know where their greed got us last time...