Ahead of the European elections, it seems that UKIP alone have a party which can lay claim to something approaching unity. The others all seem to be fighting internal battles at the very time when they need to be looking outwards. When the public comes to vote (and very few of them will actually bother), they will gravitate to the party displaying the most unity and the party which best reflects their concerns. On this basis, I can confidently predict a resounding success for UKIP in the European elections.
The Liberals have been split in two over the Lord Rennard story. In the same week that Rolf Harris et al went on trial accused of various historic sex offences, the Liberals had their own anti-hero. Unlike Harris, Travis and Roache though, the case of Lord Rennard has not been dealt with publicly through the Crown Courts. Instead, the internal report by Alistair Webster QC came to the same conclusion of the Metropolitan Police twelve months ago; namely that he shouldn't be subjected to formal charges. The real point here though is that many senior Liberals have called for Lord Rennard to formally apologise to those women who have come forward to accuse him of improper conduct.
In his report, Alistair Webster QC admits that it is unlikely that the allegations could be established beyond reasonable doubt. Furthermore, Lord Rennard has been denied access to the report upon whose conclusions he is expected to apologise. With due respect, if that was you or I, we would want to see that report before responding wouldn't we? Why then should Lord Rennard be treated any differently? It isn't that I seek to demean the gravity of the accusations against him. The report has been carried out by a very experienced barrister and we may rest assured that he would have wanted to proceed further if he felt sufficient evidence existed to do so. It is therefore a little rich for Nick Clegg to twist the wording of the report conclusions to try and elicit an apology from Lord Rennard.
Let's turn this around and see how different it looks. The women who have made the claims against Lord Rennard have had their chance to present their account of what happened. How might they feel though if their accounts were questioned and how might they feel if they were asked to apologise for besmirching Lord Rennard? For all I know, all these women might be right in their accusations but the fact is that the report does not agree with them sufficiently to take matters further. The report was able to seek witnesses and interview all the parties involved. I reiterate, the report was conducted by a very experienced barrister. Maybe it's just me but it seems that a trend has emerged within national life whereby one person can throw mud at another without recourse to themselves. Throwing the mud is easy enough. Being held to account on it's truth and legitimacy is not quite as easy.
In the recent case involving Andrew Mitchell, this was the very strategy employed by the Metropolitan Police officers to successfully have him removed from his role as government Chief Whip. So far, one of their number has subsequently admitted to lying but only because the heat was turned on him to explore the validity of his accusation. He was happy enough to throw the mud and has now forfeited his career in the Met. Throwing mud is indeed easy but can also be very costly. The problem is that a great many seem to be getting away with throwing mud. That is a real issue. This might read like one of the most dull pieces you've ever read. That may be, but if you happen to be the subject matter, the discussion takes on a more serious look.
But back to the other parties. As I write, Labour continues it's internal squabble with the powerful unions who appointed Ed Miliband as their leader. Since his election as party leader, Miliband has made a series of promises aiming to curb the influence of the unions over the Labour party. Fine aspirations they may be but the real world is a different proposition. It comes down to power, of course. The unions are prepared to forego some of their electoral power but only if the MPs do likewise. The impasse could have been predicted by anybody. In the world of socialist politics, nobody will give an inch when it comes to power. The unions know that if they cede power, the Labour party will be about as socialist as the Tories. Hence, the intention of Miliband to reform the electoral college which will decide the next leader is the stuff of fantasy. As I say, fine aspirations but they don't stand a chance in the real world. We may rest assured that the Labour party will remain socialist to it's core. In all honesty, Red Ed has done little to counter this view since being elected anyway so it's hard to see what all the fuss is about. The most recent opinion poll in the Guardian suggests he is on course to incur the same fate as Neil Kinnock in the 1980s. Leading the polls during the Parliament doesn't count for anything. His challenge is to lead the poll on election night and that is beginning to slip away from him as the economy continues it's inevitable recovery.
So what of the Tories? Well, no news really. The election is their's for the taking but they seem as intent as ever on squabbling over European membership. This is now the solitary area which will ultimately cost them an outright majority. The economy looks to be back on track and for all the oprobium, George Osborne looks to be vindicated in his strategy of cutbacks. Unemployment is falling. Interest rates are at an historic low and the base rate remains at 0.5 %. Not a bad way to be entering the final furlong. But the question of European membership threatens to thwart their route back to Downing Street. UKIP and Farage are about as united as it is possible to be while the Tories continue their tribal infighting. It's hard to see what will change unless the British people are accorded their right and given a referendum. If the vote is a no vote and all the data suggests it will be, the Tory party will be split in two overnight with the Eurosceptics joining forces with UKIP and the Europhiles being left stranded.
Life in Britain seems as about as divided as it's ever been. When it comes to finger pointing, we're world leaders but when it comes to compromise we seem a little less adept. When it comes to looking at other people such as those in Syria and Egypt, we seem to have lost all sense of reality!
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